seaclimate.com - Cooling Europe 1939 (2)

This paper attempts to focus attention on this ‘rain making’ phenomena during the initial war months in 1939. Only at this stage of WWII did the war activities directly interfere with common ‘nature and climate’. Thus this short period of time can be regarded as having gone through a direct ‘clash’ between nature and civilization. This can be compared with the sudden major eruption of a volcano with global implications. Time it took for the spread of volcanic ash and dust around the globe after the huge eruption of the volcano Krakatoa in Indonesia on August 27, 1883 until end of the year may serve as an example (Lit.: Wexler, Spread)[1]. In this case nature took charge and after a relatively short period of time, the atmosphere returned to ‘equilibrium’, making it difficult to prove the source and reasons for this specific meteorological event. It would assist in researches on climate changes, if impact of WWII - during the first few months – is under consideration , or when the war entered its 1^st, 2^nd or 3^rd years is studied in detail. The German meteorologist R. Scherhag (Lit.: Scherhag, Zirkulationstoerung)[2],observed a “great disruption incirculation” during winter of 1939/40 only, even though the winters that followed in 1940/41 and 1941/42 were also of similar nature. However, before the second and third winters of the war, military activities took place throughout theyear, giving nature time to move from ‘equilibrium to equilibrium’ without a sudden disruption. Although this aspect is admittedly rather difficult to explain, one particular practical example is part of this study. This example demonstrates a link between excessive rain in Central Europe (see this paper), and the record ‘dry air’ in the United States from October to December 1939, (2-32). This is a substantial evidence of anthropogenic influence. This proof, on a meteorologically sensitive issue, is presumably valid only when the WW II had just started. Why did the USA, after a ‘normal’ year, suddenly receive only very dry air for three months, while war in Europe ‘squeezed’ water out of the atmosphere only a few weeks earlier?

Before continuing it should be stressed once again, that the making of the arctic winter 1939/40 in Northern Europe is primarily a regional affair due to war at sea in adjacent waters. Making the atmosphere raining and paving way for arctic air should be regarded as a temporarily contributing factor only.

Limitations of this paper

This paper does not propose to discuss physical/chemical processes in a hydro-dynamic environment. It aims only to show that with the start of WWII certain events occurred which cannot be related to conditions other than war activities. However, war activities in this respect can mean quite different things as mentioned below:

Although (2) above is a very serious aspect while studying the excessive rain in Central Europe from October to mid December 1939, the impact of ‘war at sea’ is not going to be further discussed in this section.

On the other hand, lack of rain during German invasion of Poland in September 1939 will be discussed because this attack was considered to be an extremely destructive military operation. There are hardly any resultant indications to show that this invasion had any significant impact on weather and climate, except for lack of rain in Poland (see below). But it could possibly be argued that since Poland was deprived of normal rain, it could serve as proof that military activities along the Western Front kept Poland rain free, a sadly ironic event. If true (see below). The situation on Polish territory during September 1939 may have also contributed to ‘blocked ‘West Drift.’ in a minor way.

A final aspect, although speculative, should also be mentioned here. The military onslaught on Poland during September 1939 was, until then, the most massive military land war operation in such a short period of time. It ended after four weeks, with Warsaw burning for many days. All material that had been thrown into the atmosphere, such as the burst of Krakatoa 56 years earlier, could have served as ‘condensation nuclei’, if it had managed to travel a little farther to the west, contributing to heavy rain along the Western Front, or influencing rain conditions further east, e.g. when Russian and Japanese forces waged a week long battle on the boarder between Outer Mongolia and Manchuku in August and September 1939. (War in China 1939,2_33).

Basic Factors

Weather modification has been studied intensively by scientists since WWII. A number of programmes and experiments have been conducted (Lit.: Sewell)[3]. There are actually quite a few theories by which activities of humans may affect the natural causes of weather (Lit.: Parker, p. 541)[4]. Anthropogenic aerosols can have an impact on the weather process. Rainmaking experiments have been performed on the assumption that some clouds precipitate inefficiently, or not at all, because they are deficient in natural nuclei. In some cases clouds only need some “seeding” to make them produce ice nuclei, snowflakes and raindrops.

The biggest rain making experiment may have started in the autumn of 1939. Since the 1^st of September a lot of ‘seeds’ had been pushed into the air. It was possible for them to ‘make’ rain and this is precisely what happened. A several hundred kilometre long military defence zone between France and Germany, the Maginot Line and the Westwall, were put into full operation immediately after the war started. It began to rain significantly on the continent along the Western Front. It rained more than the average in September, even more heavily in October and November and still more in December before Northern Europe was dragged into arctic weather conditions with frost, ice and snow. Only these four war months, viz. September to December 1939, are the subject for following investigationn as, latest by December 1939. European weather had lost its “natural texture”.

Although neither big battles nor “shoot outs” occurred along the huge defence system, every thing was done to improve defence capabilities and to prepare two million soldiers for the worst. Therefore both fronts were busy day and night with transportation, construction, survey, training and military encounters. First substantial clash saw 700 French tanks and planes moving seven miles over the Saarland border, while 300 air planes attacked German positions in the Aachen industrial region and munitions area, some 125 miles further north, (NYT, 7 Sept 1939). At the same time British troops were landing on the continent rapidly, while German planes targeted England for the first time, (NYT, ditto) Royal Air force bombed the Isle of Sylt (NYT 9 Sept 39). There were several encounters which occurred in numerous places along the Western front and elsewhere every day especially since Germany’swestern neighbours mobilised their armies and prepared them for the worst

Poland Without Rain in September 1939

According to an assessment by German meteorological service, September 1939 was considerably wet from the upper and middle of the Rhine region (Duisburg/Cologne to Frankfurt/Darmstadt) eastward to Silesia. Large parts of middle and southern Germany received double than average rain. On 4^th of September, a wet warm high pressure front (1015 mb), approached from the Atlantic, which brought to the whole of West Germany mist and rain, but moved quickly eastwards. The warm front was almost exactly in line with French/German Westfront at 8:00 am on Sept 4, with centre of a low pressure close to Luxembourg and rain coming down in Germany, leaving nothing for Poland. (Lit.: Seewarte)[5]

On 11^th of September, a low pressure (1,000mb) originated west of Jutland, moved south to the Schelde area (12^th), and to Belgium (13^th), bringing lots of rain to North Germany and excess rain of 50mm to 100mm to Southern Germany. This low-pressure cyclone moved through North Sea, close to the sea mines that German Navy had started to lay quickly, across the middle of North Sea, at the outer edge of the German Bight. This could possibly be the first example of acyclone being “attracted” by sea war activities which produced “evaporation” (Cyclones, Chaos, Butterflies, 2_21). At least the cyclone also gave Poland some rain before the 13^th of September but it was too little, too late.

A report (NYT, 15th Sep 39) that Warsaw received heavy rain, was proved wrong. It was only a drizzle in most areas (NYT, 17 Sept 1939). By then Warsaw was encircled. The Red Army marched into Poland from the East. Days of the Polish Republic were numbered. The Nazis had deployed 5,000 planes in Poland (NYT, 25 Sept.39). On September 25 1939, 240 German planes bombed Warsaw, dropping 560 tons of bombs, including the first 1,000 kg bomb. Meanwhile 1,000 batteries shelled the city. 30 transport aircrafts dropped 70 tons of fire-bombs. Warsaw was on fire for many days. Poland surrendered. There was nothing but dust and ashes from burning cities travelling eastward around the globe for a couple of days or weeks. Did this dust help pure horrendous rain on New York in early November 1939, recording 1.4 inches in one day? (NYT, 6th November 39). But some of the dust could also have been moved by easterly winds to the Western Front contributing to excessive rain in Central Europe.

German Meteorological Service makes the following assessment for September 1939: Precipitation in North Germany is markedly below the mean averages. The opposite occurred in all other parts of Germany, with significantly higher quantity of rain than mean averages. September 1939 precipitation in percentage terms of average figures (1851-1930) for some places in Germany had been as follows:

Berlin-Dahlem (197 %); Frankfurt/Oder (197 %); Breslau (204 %); Ratibor (210 %); Karlsruhe i.B. (208 %); Stuttgart (199 %); Ulm (226%); Wuerzburg (215 %); Muenchen (212%). (Lit.: Witterungsberichte)[6].

October 1939– Raining ‘Cats and Dogs’

In the West, Middle and South Germany volumes of rain recorded at most observation stationswas more than double, in some cases even 3.5 times more than usual, as follows: Augsburg 366%; Noerdlingen 362%, Kaiserslautern 336 %, Wuerzburg 316 %. (Lit.: Witterungsbericht)[7].

Due to war situation there are hardly any weather related documentation available. In respect of Darmstadt it was reported that it would be necessary to go back to the year 1882 to find a similar volume of precipitation during a period oft hree months, i.e. Sept-Nov., as the autumn had never been so wet since more than 100 years (Lit.: Fischer, Nasser)[8]. The nearby city of Frankfurt a. M. recorded: 137%, 265%, 237% during the time in question.

The Black Forest and Freiburg i. Br. recorded 30 days of rain; a number of other locations had up to 24 days of rain, (Lit.: Witterungsbericht)[9].

An eye-witness report may serve to illustrate the special situation at the Western Front. According the New York Times, by mid October the West Front saw a ‘Nazi Attack with 100,000 men’ and following weather:

“Bad weather prevailed today on the entire Western Front, where conditions could not have been worse for offensive operations. The Germans were obliged to use railroads for amassing/transportingreinforcements, with the result that all lines of communications were clogged throughout the day. Rain and fog kept allied planes grounded.

French artillery whipped the German front line positions, roads and railroads with shrapnel to hamper operations.

Rains aided flood in Rhineand forced evacuation of several Westwall blockhouses opposite Strasbourg. They also caused the Moselle to rise to a level eleven feet above previous week’s level. The Blies and other small streams flowing into the Saar River were flooded and the terrain already badly pocked by artillery fires in Monday’s bitter fighting, was covered with water holes. (NYT, 18 Oct.39).

Southeast England recorded rainfall of more than three times above average in October 1939. Greenwich saw a higher rainfall only in 1888, and before that in 1840 (Lit.: Lewis)[10]. Greenwich total for October (6.16 in.) and November (4.13 in.) together –10.29 inches – was the highest ever since recording had begun at Greenwich (Lit.: Correspondence, Greenwich)[11]. Similar conditions had been observed at Camden Square (London), where hours of rainfall are recorded as follows: October,77.3 h, November 96.7 h. These were 50 hours higher than the average (Lit.: Correspondence, Camden)[12].

Holland also reported rains throughout the month of October 1939. (NYT, 2 Nov.39). Similar condition presumably prevailed in Belgium and Northern France as well. In January 1940 NYT correspondent G.H. Archambault reported while staying with the French Armies: ”the autumn of 1939 was one of the wettest known”. (NYT, 26 Jan.49).

November 1939 – Rain Spares France – At least For Now

“Germans continued to shell Forbach. Artillery hammered as forcefully as wet weather impeded action by infantry”, (NYT, 06 Nov.39). Another headline of the NYT (16 Oct.39) reads: “French Still Wait for Reich’s Attack – Rain Impedes Fighting”.

On 19^th of October plan “Yellow” for the invasion of France was finalised. On 7^th of November commencement of the invasionplan was postponed for the first time. A Blitzkrieg was not advisable with ‘General Mud’ in company. Hitler wanted to go ahead and would have sent the Wehrmacht across the boarders in late 1939, but for excessively wet autumn and the extreme winter weather conditions. Thus inclement weather conditionsmade even Hitler think twice.

Indeed, November 1939 weather conditions were not much better than in October. In general it was a bit too warm and too wet, 200% and more of normal for the season, in Hannover, Aachen, Kassel, Frankfurt a.M., Magdeburg, Ulm, Wuerzburg.

By November 19/20, 1939; The Rhine had been rising again and there was heavy flooding in Switzerland.. (NZZ, 20 Nov.39) – ‘Neue Zurcher Zeitung’

November 29, 1939; Heaviest flooding of rivers in Belgium and Holland made Navigation impossible. Further rise of water was expected. (NZZ, 29 Nov.39)

That the quantity of rain in East-South-East of Central Europe in late autumn of 1939 was excessive, was confirmed by a NYT report in mid December: “The water of the Danube River have begun to recede from the record December flood level, and the speed of current, caused by swollen tributaries, relaxed.” (NYT, 13 Dec.39).

Saxony and Switzerland - December 1939

Switzerland also experienced a very wet autumn as well, with heavy flooding in late November and saw last rain on December 11. However, Zurich experienced only some drizzlein early January 1940. (NZZ, 14 Jan.40).

Russian-Finnish battles in December

War inside the arctic circle is a serious matter in terms of weather making, especially if fighting starts at the meteorologically most sensitive time, i.e., from end of November and till end of December.

Dec. 03: Bad flight weather; Mist and rain on Friday; Snow falling in Helsinki yesterday.

Dec. 04: Blinding snowstorm aids defence; North of Ladoga Lake ice is still thin; Petsamo: bitter cold and severesnowstorm.

Dec. 05: Snowstorm hinders foe; snow is piled deep at various sections of the battle line; early setting in of winter conditions; Helsinki feels safer in snow storm; snowstorm slowed down activities on both fronts and air.

Weather conditions turned worse and worse, The Red Army was completely unprepared for this early winter onslaught by nature and suffered heavy losses in terms of men and material. A detailed assessment is given in: Russia-Finnish war (2_41).

With regard to ‘rain making’, Russian – Finnish winter war during December 1939 should certainly not be ignored in an overall assessment on the driving ‘hydrodynamic’ forces leading to these winter conditions. Shelling and bombing would certainly have contributed to heavy snow and snowstorm conditions and precipitation that would otherwise have gone down further east somewhere before or behind Moscow.

Summary

The suddenness and extremeness of the war winter of 1939/40 had been such an extraordinary meteorological event that every aspect relating to its rapid build up should be elaborated and weighed. The atmosphere during the particularly climatically sensitive autumn months of September to December in the Northern Hemisphere reacted immediately. Rain that came down in Western Europe as heavy down poursince the war started on September 1^st had not been available in the USA during the corresponding period. While mostly excessive rain occurred in Europe during October, USA experienced a record dry month with only 44% precipitation of average for the whole country, four weeks later, during November 1939, (USA dried out 1939,2_32)..

What followed the ‘ humidity gap in the air’ was, inter-alias, a ‘disruption incirculation’ all over the Northern Hemisphere. Excessive rain in Europe and dryness in USA was certainly not the only cause for this ‘disruption’. Temporary ‘absence of water’ in the atmosphere provides a perfect explanation as to why not only Europe fell prey to an ice age winter, but also China and the USA had suddenly experienceda very severe January 1940. In fact, cyclonic activities are weakened by less water in the air.

This study aims to highlight that actual “rain forcing” in autumn 1939 might have contributed to free the path for masses of arctic air to move deep south with little resistance from maritime air in all northern parts of the Northern Hemisphere. The severe winter, coldest for one hundred years in countries bordering most war-affected seas in Northern Europe did not come‘just out of the blue.’ Clue to this is to be found in the war at sea. The distant impact of war in Europe and in the winter of January 1940 in the USA and China had presumably contributed to‘rain forcing’ in Europe that evidently brought a record dry autumn spell to the States, and subsequently paved the way for arctic air to dominate over areas usually under the influence of the West Drift. In this respect it is worth noting that East Siberia and Canada had been actually too warm (about + 7°C) at the same period of time. (Lit.: Scherhag, Zirkulationsstoerung)[14]. An interesting aspect, while assessing events in late 1939 is that nature was still in its ‘pristine status’, allowing observations or deviation to be assessed on an uninterrupted or ‘mixed-up’ data basis. The autumn 1939 provides a very important period in this respect.

LITERATURE:

Correspondence, Camden; Summary of meteorological observations made at Camden Square (London) during the year 1939’; Quarterly J.o.Royal Met. Soc., 1940, p. 280.

Correspondence, Greenwich; Communicated by the Astronomer Royal, ‚Meteorological observations at the Royal Observatory, Greenwich, during the year 1939’; Quarterly J.o.Royal Met. Soc., 1940, p 207.

Fischer, Rudolf, (Nasser); ‚Sehr Nasser Herbst 1939’, in: Zeitschrift fuer angewandte Meteorologie, 57 Jahrg., 1940, p.31-32

Lewis, L.F., ‚The weather of 1939’, in: The Meteorological Magazine, Feb.1940, pp.9-11.

Naegler, W., ‚Grosser Schneefall und Schneebruch im December 1939’, in: Zeitschrift fuer angewandte Meteorologie, 57. Jahrg., 1940, p.30-31.

Parker, Sybil P., Editor in Chief; ‚McGraw-Hill Encyclopaedia of Ocean and Atmospheric Science’, New York 1980, p. 100; pp 541-547.

Scherhag, Richard; ‘Die grosse Zirkulationsstoerung im Jahr 1940’, in: Annalen der Meteorologie, 4. Jahrgang, Heft 7-9, 1951, p.321-329.

Seewarte: refer to the daily German Weather Charts, detailed weather observation and weather forecast and weather analysis, section “Witterungsübersicht”.

Sewell, W.R.D., et al.; ‘Modifying the Weather – A Social Assessment’, University of Victoria 1973.

Wexler, H. (Spread); ‘Spread of the Krakatoa Volcanic Dust Cloud as related to high-level circulation’, in: Bulletin American Meteorological Soc., Vol. 32, No.2, February 1951, pp. 48-52.

Witterungsbericht; ‘Deutscher Witterungsbericht’, until 1939 (including) in: Zeitschrift „Wirtschaft und Statistik“, by Statistischen Reichsamt (publ), since 1940 as ‚Deutscher Witterungsbericht 1940-1944’, Deutscher Wetterdienst in der US-Zone, Bad Kissing, 1948.

[1] Wexler, H. (Spread); ‘Spread of the Krakatoa Volcanic Dust Cloud as related to high-level circulation’, in: Bulletin American Meteorological Soc., Vol. 32, No.2, February 1951, pp. 48-52.

[2]Scherhag, Richard, (Zirkulationstoerung); ‘Die grosse Zirkulationsstoerung im Jahr 1940’, in: Annalen der Meteorologie, 4. Jahrgang, Heft 7-9, 1951, p.321-329.

[3] Sewell, W.R.D., et al.; ‘Modifying the Weather – A Social Assessment’, University of Victoria 1973.

[4] Parker, Sybil P., Editor in Chief; ‚McGraw-Hill Encyclopaedia of Ocean and Atmospheric Science’, New York 1980, p. 100; pp 541-547.

[5]Seewarte: German meteorological office ‘Seewarte’; refer to the daily German Weather Charts, detailed weather observation and weather forecast and weather analysis, section “Witterungsübersicht”.

[6] Witterungsbericht; ‘Deutscher Witterungsbericht’, until 1939 (including) in: Zeitschrift „Wirtschaft und Statistik“, by Statistischen Reichsamt (publ), since 1940 as ‚Deutscher Witterungsbericht 1940-1944’, Deutscher Wetterdienst in der US-Zone, Bad Kissing, 1948.

[7]Witterungsbericht, FN 6

[8] Fischer, Rudolf, (Herbst); ‚Sehr nasser Herbst 1939’, in: Zeitschrift fuer angewandte Meteorologie, 57 Jahrg., 1940, p.31-32

[9]Witterungsbericht, FN 6

[10] Lewis, L.F.; ‚The weather of 1939’, in: The Meteorological Magazine, Feb.1940, pp.9-11.

[11] Correspondence, Greenwich; Communicated by the Astronomer Royal, ‚Meteorological observations at the Royal Observatory, Greenwich, during the year 1939’; Quarterly J.o.Royal Met. Soc., 1940, p 207.

[12] Correspondence, Camden; Summary of meteorological observations made at Camden Square (London) during the year 1939’; Quarterly J.o.Royal Met. Soc., 1940, p. 280.

[13]Naegler, W.(Schneefall); ‚Grosser Schneefall und Schneebruch im December 1939’, in: Zeitschrift fuer angewandte Meteorologie, 57. Jahrg., 1940, p.30-31.

[14]Scherhag, (Zirkulationsstoerungen), FN 2

Resultant Rain due to War - 1939 (2_31)

Aim of this paper