by Dieter Koop
Table of Contents
A Guide to understand climate change
climate change and man’s
contribution (p. 1-2)
The experts who do not see a war (p. 3ff)
a. Sensational observations at Kew Observatory
- Bingo! Three-winter record! #
c. At the Centre of
Marine Meteorology, but….? #
d. Cold and Special -
Winter 1939/40 #
e. The biggest forecasting flop ever
# f. Describing winter
weather – without searching for causes
# g. A lasting secret?
The cut-off low pressure areas. Winter 1941/42
# h. Cyclone density
changes during the war? # i.
The El Niño didn’t make the harsh war winters.
Temperature Map TM1 (page 5)
A3. Man made climate – since 1850 (p. 3-12)
a. Can people alter weather and climate?
# b. Where do we stand?
What should we look at? Anthropogenic ocean use!
# d. Two world wars -
two climatic changes #
e. Comments concerning the terms "weather" and "climate"
# f. Further
Map TM2 (page 15)
B. A three
year cold package. - Providing evidence?
Warm & warmer – The situation prior to the WWII
# c. Time witnesses see
a lot, but understand little #
in rough seas #
e. A power that turns the Baltic into ice
# f. Three sea ice
years in succession #
g. A thriller about the cold – But science is ignorant
cold vs. Globe warm; 1940-1942 - A summary,
# Temperature Map TM3 (page 25)
brings ice age back (p. 43-46
Temperature Map TM4 (page 45)
Records, Records, Records
– Introduction to the unexpected (p. 47-50)
a. In Focus #
More remarkable weather events #
War at sea 1939 - Facts and events
(p. 51-56 )
a. Introduction #
b. The military strength in general
# c. Total Naval war,
and weather in opposition #
C4. The sky cries because of the war?
Dry, Rain, Cold!
a. Why talk about rain? An Introduction
# b. Does war make rain?
The factor of rain prior to winter 1939/40
# d. Did the war show an effect
in autumn 1939 and January 1940? #
e. Natural variation?
# f. Is it possible to establish a connection with the war?
The findings until now can be summarized as
Map TM5 (page 59)
Jet stream blocked by naval combat? (p. 67-74)
a. Air flow blocked – Understood? – An introduction
# b. The first days and
the cyclone in the German Bight #
c. Blocking observed but not understood
# d. Not competent enough to read
the wind? # e. The whole winter season affected
# f. How R.
Scherhag rated December 1939 #
g. An anthropogenic
contribution to the preparation of
a record winter.
Map TM6 (page 69)
C6 The weather attacked in the
a. Overview –When
; The New York Times reported
# c. Weather summary #
d. Winter War on land and in the air - Summary
C7. The evidence in the ice of the
a. An Overview – The numerous aspects to discuss
# b. The icing
condition, start, intensity, and duration in a brief view
# c. Assault at the
starts an extraordinary ice season #
d. Loss of heat by shells and anthropogenic forcing
# e. From
the Kriegsmarine churned the sea #
f. The Scandinavian in action and the
on the edge #
h. The German Bight and the sea ice
# i. How the navies prevented early icing in the
Gulf of Finland
j. Randomly excluded
C8 From the North Sea to the
(p. 91-100) (in:
a. Could early questions have
minimised the worst? #
b. The naval war situation around the
# c. Activities
Cooling the North Sea a matter to reckon with
# e. War theater in the
f. The west wind aisle mutates to a cold corridor
Map TM7 (page 93)
a. Factors & non-factors
# b. From one autumn to
the next #
c. From low to heavy
ice cover in the Baltic #
d. The sudden end to a two decade increased warming
# f. Summary
Winter 1940/41 a climatic research delight
(Page 105 - 122)
a. Bad boys in navy blue and
climate experts without a clou? #
# c. Did the
play a special role?
# d. How deep could naval warfare penetrate?
The sea ice winter 1940/41 #
Summing up a winter of scientific delight
Map TM8 (page 109)
E. The War Winter 1941/42
(Page 123 - 154)
Did naval war stop Adolf Hitler before
? (p. 123-128)
a. A "lightning war"
(blitzkrieg) collapses in early December 1941
An overview of Naval Battlefields and weather deviation
# c. Did the winter commence early?
# d. Curiosity or what
happened at Malgoviks
primary school in Lappland/Sweden? #
e. Early sea ice? #
f. What made the winter of 1941/42 so severe?
Map TM9 (page 125)
“Barbarossa“ & its appendix, - The naval war in the Baltic
a. Don’t ask what the
weather has done to the war, but what the war has done to the weather!
# b. The Failure of the
land and air offensive #
c. The naval arm of ‘Barbarossa’ in the Baltic
E3 When the weather
broke down along the Eastern Front (p. 135-140)
a. The forecast #
b. A Russian account
Further Details #
d. What else need science to get serious – The
Tallinn case! #
e. Six months
f. Three months deviation
E4 The winter
of 1941/42 (p. 141-148)
a. What does one need to know?
’s weather #
# g. A cold air pool on visit
Map TM10 (page 143 )
E5 What evidence does sea
ice offer in the Baltic (p. 149-152)
a. What to look for? #
b. The Danish ice report (excerpts)
# c. The Swedish ice
report by G. Liljequist (excerpts)
# d. The Finish ice
observer Erkki Palosuo
# e. Discussion
E6 Summary: Easy climate
research with the winter 1941/42 (p. 153-154)
F. Any role of El Niño?
(Page 155 - 160)
a. Asking the right question? #
b. What are the facts? #
El Niño thesis is superficial
# d. How reliable are
the temperature data to establish an
El Niño? #
e. Items to be considered #
These observations and the
Map TM11 (page 157)
G. Global Cooling from 1940-1970
(Page 161 - 176)
An Atlantic matter? (p.
a. A settled issue? #
b. How global cooling was discussed first
# c. What are David
Thompson et al. talking about? #
d. The time matters #
e. Too curious? Or, towards new thinking with the jellyfish?
# Temperature Map TM12 (page 163 )
What does the ‘
’ mean to the marine environment? (p. 169-172)
a. Introduction to WWII Atlantic matters
# b. Physical stress to
c. For example: Atlantic Convoys
# d. The chapter air
planes in naval warfare matter #
e. German/Axis U-boats #
f. Atlantic Sea Mines #
g. Arctic Convoys # h.
Total Allies loss
Discussing the kick off to global cooling (p. 173-176)
North Atlantic is not the only but the dominant factor
# b. The Sea Surface Temperature issue #
What can NAO tell? #
d. A link between the
North Atlantic and
temperature-drop issue # f. Summery remarks
H. Pacific War, 1942-1945,
contributing to Global Cooling?
( Page 177 - 188)
# b. The Pacific War
# c. A
cold winter in
1944/45 only due to natural variation?
# d. The regional extent of the cold winter
# e. Coldest May &
July on record – The data 1945 #
f. A clue from SST and correlation?
# g. The Shift in the Pacific – mid 1940s –?
# h. Interpreting the
PDO record # i.
Discussion and Summary
Map TM13 (page 181)
I. Warming before Cooling –
The trace to the
(Page 189 - 200)
A WWI ended with a Climatic Jump
A big naval war, and a big temperature shift in the Arctic
# c. Conclusion
Map TM14 (page 191)
(Page 203 - 210)
(Page 220 - 224)
about 15 MB
About the author
Dr. Arnd Bernaerts